Weighted Ensemble Prediction System Model for Monthly Rainfall Total in Indramayu District, West Java, Indonesia
Keywords:
Monthly Rainfall, WEPS, SPS modelAbstract
Water distribution is very crucial especially in regions vulnerable to the water availability. The events in the specific region of Indramayu District, West Java Province, Indonesia, has a sequential above normal monthly rainfall condition capable of causing flooding. This natural hazard occurs because Indramayu is a coastal lowland which receives water from adjacent districts especially during rainy season. Meanwhile the sequential below normal monthly rainfall is factually able to trigger drought occurrences. This condition proves Indramayu to be a very sensitive area to the water availability. Coping with this situation, the optimal rainfall prediction is urgently needed. The Weighted Ensemble Prediction System (WEPS) model based on several output of Single Prediction System (SPS) models such as ANFIS model, Wavelet-ANFIS model, Wavelet-ARIMA model, and ARIMA model of monthly rainfall, has been simulated in this district. The WEPS model was developed in order to minimize the inconsistent result of SPS models output. This WEPS is prepared based on the weighting values taken from each SPS models output. The weighting values are computed based on the Pearson correlation coefficients (r) produced during the training period of 1991-2000 of observed data series. These r values are computed in order to understand the agreement of models output to its observed data. All the rainfall stations (total of 16 sites) in Indramayu District ran the SPS and WEPS models to get the output of monthly rainfall total prediction. After computing r and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of monthly rainfall prediction, the models
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