The Dynamic Model Approach in Estimating Rabies Death in North Toraja Regency
Keywords:
Estimation, Dynamic Model, Rabies.Abstract
Estimate of deaths from rabies in the future are an important aspect in the planning of public health policies towards Indonesia for rabies. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths from rabies for 20 years (2013-2033) and the most appropriate preventive strategies in reducing the rate of increase in the number of deaths from rabies using a dynamic model approach in North Toraja Regency. The study design was observational analytic with case control study design using secondary data reporting cases of human rabies animal bites, medical treatment provision VAR, deaths from rabies in humans, cases of rabies in animals, the number of the dog population, the number of rabies vaccination in dogs in the District Toraja Utara 2013-2014. Data analysis was performed by building causal loop and flow charts Model Rabies Deaths use Powersim program. The results showed in the 20 years to come estimated deaths from rabies increased by 7x fold per year of 4 people (0.13%) in 2013 to 396 people (12.87%) in 2033 if the risk factors that affect the rabies death not controlled. Increasing the number of deaths from rabies can be prevented by controlling the various risk factors that intervene VAR such as giving 100%, intervention rabies vaccination in dogs by 80%, intervention castration of male dogs as much as 5%, and the combination of increased intervention in all influential variables.
The most appropriate strategy to reduce the rate of increase in deaths from rabies is to combine three variables increase interventions that can decrease the number of deaths from 396 deaths to 18 deaths.
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