Sensitivity Analysis of the SVEIR Model on the Spread of Covid-19 Disease in Indonesia
Keywords:
Covid-19, stability, sensitivity analysisAbstract
The spread of Covid-19 is a serious global health problem, as well as in Indonesia. Mathematical modelling is one way to see how the spread of the Covid-19 disease is developing. Model used in this article is SVEIR models. In this article, we discuss the stability of the disease-free fixed point using the Routh Hurwitz criteria, while the stability of the endemic fixed point is examined using the Castillo-Chaves and Song theorems. It is confirmed that the disease-free fixed point is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. In addition, the local asymptotically stable endemic fixed point if the basic reproduction number is more than one. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the parameters of the model that are most sensitive to the system. The results of numerical simulations show that the biggest influence on dynamics of spread of the disease is the contact rate of the spread of the disease.
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