Periodic Assessment of Trend and Climatic Variability in the LCB
AbstractPeriodic assessment of trend and climatic variability is important for better planning and water resource management in the LCB catchment. This study assessed the impact of climatic variables on the LCB (LCB) using rainfall data derived from TAMSAT, run off and evapotranspiration data derived from climate engine over a period of twenty years (2001-2020). Non-parametric Mann Kendall (MK) and Spearman rho tests were applied to detect the presence of rainfall trends and trend magnitude was calculated using Sen’s Slope Estimator (SSE). With an average annual rainfall of 523.62mm, trend analysis showed an annual positive trend for precipitation at 5% significance level. Analysis of seasonal rainfall using both tests revealed an increasing trend during the dry season. However, the late dry season experienced a slight increasing trend and for wet seasons. There was 2.7% runoff and 4.6% evapotranspiration which are the lowest for the time series.
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