Different Patterns of HIV Expansion Between High-income and Non-rich Countries and the Potential Drivers during the 1980s


  • Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile
  • Mauricio Lima Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile
  • Timothy Peter Moulton Departamento de Ecologia, Faculdade de Ciéncias Biológicas, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
  • Fabian Jaksic Departamento de Ecología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile, Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Santiago, Chile


Poverty, HIV, global patterns, dynamics, HIV subtypes, urbanization, malaria


Disease dynamics theory predicts that after the introduction of an infected individual into a susceptible population, the number of infected individuals will grow exponentially until a point at which the depletion of the susceptible class starts to affect the rate of increase of the infectious class. The disease then starts to self-limit its own rate of increase towards an equilibrium with the size of the infectious population. Here, we explored whether the HIV dynamics described exponential growth as theoretically predicted during the 1980s decade for 64 countries.  We focused on the HIV population rate of change per infectious individual ( RHIV ) of the infectious class. We used nonlinear regression between HIV infectious class size and RHIV to determine the dynamic behavior of HIV. The prevalence of HIV increased exponentially in most countries, except for high-income countries. The world during the 1980s could be separated into two groups based on HIV dynamics at the country scale.

We performed a multivariate analysis with variables mentioned in the HIV literature to explore the preexisting scenarios that could influence this global separation with regard to HIV dynamics. Poverty levels, malaria burden, the prevalence of men who have sex with men, the prevalence of sex workers, the modes of transmission (HIV subtypes) and the urbanization process could interact to explain the differences among countries with regard to HIV dynamics. The results suggest that during the 1980s, we could divide the world into two groups based on the HIV exponential (non-rich countries) and logistic growth patterns (high-income countries).


J. Pépin, The origins of AIDS. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.

I. Bates et al. “Vulnerability to malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS infection and disease. Part 1: determinants operating at individual and household level.” Lancet Infect Dis, vol. 4, pp. 267-77, 2004. DOI:10.1016/S1473-3099(04)01002-3.

E.L. Korenromp et al. “Malaria attributable to the HIV-1 epidemic, Sub-Saharan Africa”. Emerg Infect Dis; vol. 11, pp. 1410-1419, 2005. DOI: 10.3201/eid1109.050337.

WHO. Global Tuberculosis report 2013. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2009.

WHO. Accelerating progress on HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, hepatitis and neglected tropical diseases. A new agenda for 2016- 2030. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2016a.

WHO. World Malaria Report 2016. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2016b.

UNAIDS. UNAIDS report on the global AIDS epidemic. Geneva: UNAIDS, 2013.

UNAIDS. The Gap Report. Geneva: UNAIDS, 2014.

UNAIDS. Global AIDS update. Geneva: UNAIDS, 2016.

F.A.M. Krsulovic, M. Lima. “Tuberculosis epidemiology at country scale: Selflimiting process and the HIV effects”. PloS ONE, vol. 11, pp. 1-13, 2016. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0153710.

WHO. Global hepatitis report. Geneva: World Health Organization, 2017.

T. Barnett, A. Whiteside, J. Decosas. “The Jaipur paradigm: a conceptual framework for understanding social susceptibility and vulnerability to HIV.” S Afr Med ; vol. 90, pp. 1098–1101, 2000.

H.M. Coovadia, J. Hadingham. “HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks.” Globalization and Health, pp. 1-13, 2005. doi:10.1186/1744-8603-1-13.

T. Barnighausen, et al. “The socioeconomic determinants of HIV incidence: evidence from a longitudinal, population-based study in rural South Africa.” AIDS, vol. 21, pp. 29–38, 2007. doi: 10.1097/01.aids.0000300533.59483.95.

N.D. Mbirimtengerenji. “Is HIV/AIDS epidemic outcome of poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa?” Croat Med J, vol. 48, pp. 605-617, 2007.

A.M. Fox. “The social determinants of serostatus in sub-Saharan Africa: an inverse relationship between poverty and HIV?” Public Health Rep, vol. 125, pp. 16–24, 2010.

A. Boutayed. “The impact of HIV/AIDS on human development in African countries.” BMC Public Health, vol. 9, 2009. doi: 10.1186/1471-2458-9-S1-S3.

A.M. Fox. “The HIV-poverty thesis re-examined: poverty, wealth or inequality as a social determinant of HIV infection.” Biosoc Sc, vol. 44, pp. 459-480, 2011. doi: 10.1017/S0021932011000745.

J.O. Parkhurst. “Understanding the correlations between wealth, poverty and human immunodeficiency virus infection in African countries.” Bull World Health Organ, vol. 88, pp. 519-526, 2010. DOI: 10.2471/BLT.09.070185.

H. Kazianga et al. “Disease control, demographic change and institutional development in Africa.” Journal of Development Economics, vol. 110, pp. 313– 326, 2014. DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.04.002.

S.J.S Pascoe et al. “Poverty, food insufficiency and HIV infection and sexual behaviour among young rural Zimbabwean women.” PLoS ONE, vol. 10, pp. 1, 2015.doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0115290.

UN. World Urbanization Prospects. New York: United Nations, 2014.

R.M. May, R.M. Anderson. “Population biology of infectious diseases: Part II.” Nature, vol. 280, pp. 455-461, 1979.

R.M. May, R.M. Anderson. “Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I.” Nature, vol. 280, pp. 361-367, 1979.

R.M. Anderson, R.M. May. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. USA: Oxford University Press, 1999.

R.M. May, R.M. Anderson. “The transmission dynamics of the human deficiency vírus (HIV).” Phil Trans R Soc Lond, vol. 32, pp. 565-570, 1988.

R.M. May, R.M. Anderson. “Transmission dynamics of HIV infection.” Nature, vol. 326, pp. 137-142, 1987.

D. Low-Beer, R.L. Stoneburner. “An Age- and sex-structured HIV epidemiological model: features and applications.” Bull World Health Organ; vol. 75, pp. 213-221, 1997.

G.P. Garnett. “An introduction to mathematical models in sexually transmitted disease epidemiology.” Sex Transm Inf; vol. 78, pp. 7-12, 2002.

WHO. Bridging the gaps. Geneva: World Health Organization, 1995.

K. Shannon et al. “Global epidemiology of HIV among female sex workers: influence of structural determinants.” The Lancet, vol. 385, pp. 55-71, 2015. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60931-4.

M. Moore et al. “Global urbanization and impact on health.” Int J Hyg Environ Health, vol. 206, pp. 269-278, 2003. DOI: 10.1078/1438-4639-00223.

L.B. Eugenie, M. Susan. Global urbanization. Pensylvania: University of Pensylvania press, 2011.

J.F. Trape et al. “Combating malaria in Africa.” Trends Parasitol, vol. 18, pp. 224-230, 2002. DOI:10.1016/s1471-4922(02)02249-3.

L. Abu-Raddad et al. “Dual infection with HIV and malaria fuels the spread of both diseases in Sub-Saharan Africa.” Science, vol. 314, pp. 1603-1606, 2006. DOI:10.1126/science.1132338.

D.L. Doolan et al. “Acquired immunity to malaria.” Clinical Microbiology Reviews, vol. 143, pp. 139-153, 2009.

D.F. Cuadros et al. “HIV–malaria co-infection: effects of malaria on the prevalence of HIV in East sub-Saharan Africa.” Int J Epidemiol, vol. 40, pp. 931-940, 2011. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyq256.

N. Irene et al. “Changes in Malaria Epidemiology in Africa and New Challenges for Elimination.” Trends Parasitol, vol. 33, pp.128-140, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2016.11.006.

T. Royama. Analytical population dynamics. London: Chapman & Hall, 1992.

A.A. Berryman. Principles of population dynamics and their application. USA: Stanley Hornes, 1999.

A.A. Berryman, P. Turchin. “Identifying the density-dependent structure underlying ecological time series.” Oikos, vol. 92, pp. 265-270, 2001.

M.Lima. “A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and measles dynamics during the vaccination period in England and Wales.” Ecol Lett, vol. 12, pp. 302-314, 2009. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2009.01289.x.

B.H. Mevik, R. Wehrens. “The pls package: principal components and partial least squares regression in R.” J Stat Software, vol. 18, pp. 1–24, 2007

R Core Team. R: A language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2016.

M. Miller et al. “The social epidemiology of HIV transmission among African American women who use drugs and their social network members.” AIDS Care, vol. 19, pp. 858-65, 2010.

M.A. Hacker et al. “Poverty, bridging between injecting drug users and the general population, and ‘‘interiorization’’ may explain the spread of HIV in southern Brazil.” Health & Place, vol. 15, pp. 514–519, 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2008.09.011.

Y.A. Amirkhanian. “Social Networks, Sexual Networks and HIV Risk in Men Who Have Sex with Men.” Curr HIV/AIDS Rep, vol. 11, pp. 81–92, 2014. doi:10.1007/s11904013-0194-4.

UNAIDS. UNAIDS Data. Geneva: UNAIDS, 2017.

J.F.G. Monteiro et al. “Understanding the effects of different HIV transmission models in individual-based microsimulation of HIV epidemic dynamics in people who inject drugs.” Epidemiol Infect, vol. 144, pp. 1683–1700, 2016. doi:10.1017/S0950268815003180.

J.J. Potterat et al. “Network structural dynamics and infectious disease propagation.” Int J STD AIDS, vol. 10, pp. 182-185, 1999. DOI: 10.1258/0956462991913853.

K. Dombrowski et al. “The interaction of risk network structures and virus natural history in the non-spreading of HIV among people who inject drugs in the Early stages of the epidemic.” AIDS Behav, vol. 21, pp. 1004–1015, 2017. doi:10.1007/s10461016-1568-6.

S.R. Friedman et al. “Network-related mechanisms may help explain long-term HIV1 seroprevalence levels that remain high but do not approach population-group saturation.” Am J Epidemiol, vol. 152, pp. 913, 2000. DOI: 10.1093/aje/152.10.913.

T.B. Hallett et al. “Assessing evidence for behavior change affecting the course of HIV epidemics: A new mathematical modelling approach and application to data from Zimbabwe.” Epidemics, vol. 1, pp. 108–117, 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2009.03.001.

C.C.P. Loiola. “Controle da malária no Brasil: 1965 a 2001.” Pan Am J Public Health, vol. 11, pp. 235-244, 2002.

S. Amaral et al. Análise espacial do processo de urbanização da Amazônia. Amazonas: INPE, 2001.

P.B. Bloland, W.A. Holly. Malaria control during mass population movements and natural disasters. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, 2003.

H. Epstein. “The mathematics of concurrent partnerships and HIV: a commentary on Lurie and Rosenthal, 2009.” AIDS Behav, vol. 14, pp. 28-30, 2010. doi: 10.1007/s10461009-9627-x.

M.N. Lurie, S. Rosenthal. “Concurrent partnerships as a driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa? The evidence is limited.” AIDS Behav, vol. 1, pp. 17-24, 2010a. doi: 10.1007/s10461-009-9583-5.

T.L. Mah, D.T. Halperin. “Concurrent sexual partnerships and the HIV epidemics in Africa: evidence to move forward.” AIDS Behav, vol. 1, pp. 11-16, 2010a. doi: 10.1007/s10461-008-9433-x.

T.L. Mah, D.T. Halperin. “The evidence for the role of concurrent partnerships in Africa’s HIV epidemics: a response to Lurie and Rosenthal.” AIDS Behav, vol. 14, pp. 25-28, 2010b. DOI: 10.1007/s10461-009-9617-z.

M.N. Lurie et al. “Concurrency driving the African HIV epidemics: where is the evidence?” The Lancet, vol. 374, pp. 1420–1421, 2009. doi: 10.1016/S01406736(09)61860-2.

M.N. Lurie, S. Rosenthal. “The concurrency hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa: convincing empirical evidence Is still lacking. Response to Mah and Halperin, Epstein, and Morris.” AIDS Behav, vol. 14, pp. 34, 2010b. DOI:10.1007/s10461-0099640-0.

A. Banerjee, L. Iyer. “History, institutions, and economic performance: The legacy of colonial land tenure systems in India.” American Economic Review, vol. 95, pp. 1190-1213, 2005. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.321721.

D. Acemoglu, J.A. Robinson. “Why is Africa Poor?” Economic History of Developing Regions, vol. 25, pp. 21-50, 2010. DOI: 10.1080/20780389.2010.505010.

E. Chiabi. British administration and nationalism in the southern Cameroons, 1914- 1954. in Njeuma N, ed. Introduction to the History of Cameroon, Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries. St Martin: St. Martin’s Press, 1989.

N. Gennaioli, I. Rainer. “The modern impact of pre-colonial centralization in Africa.” J Econ Growth, vol. 12, pp. 185–234, 2007. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-007-9017-z.

E. Huillery. “History Matters: The long-term impact of colonial public investments in French west Africa.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics; vol. 1, pp. 176–215, 2009. DOI: 10.1257/app.1.2.176.

A. Gareth. “African economic development and colonial legacies.” International Development Policy, vol. 1, pp. 11-32, 2010.

N. Nunn. “The Long-term effects of Africa’s slave trades.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 123, pp. 139–176, 2008. DOI: 10.3386/w13367.

S. Michalopoulous, E. Papaioannou. “Pre-colonial ethnic institutions and contemporary African development.” Econometrica, vol. 81, pp. 113–152, 2013. DOI:10.3386/w18224.

E. Bayeh. “The political and economic legacy of colonialism in the post-independence African states.” International Journal in Commerce, IT & Social Sciences, vol. 2, pp. 3394-5702, 2015.

S. Michalopoulous, E. Papaioannou. “The long-run effects of the scramble for Africa.” American Economic Review, vol. 106 pp. 1802–1848, 2016. DOI: 10.3386/w17620.




How to Cite

Felipe Augusto Maurin Krsulovic, Mauricio Lima, Peter Moulton, T. ., & Fabian Jaksic. (2022). Different Patterns of HIV Expansion Between High-income and Non-rich Countries and the Potential Drivers during the 1980s. International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research (IJSBAR), 62(1), 127–146. Retrieved from https://gssrr.org/index.php/JournalOfBasicAndApplied/article/view/13842