Mathematical Evaluation of Antiretroviral Therapy Effect in Ghana

Abstract

 Human Immunodeficiency Virus-Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV-AIDS) has continued to be a tremor to the health sector in Ghana. One person was first diagnosed with HIV-AIDS in the Eastern region part of Ghana in 1986. Subsequently, 41 people more were diagnosed HIV positive in the same year. The spread of this disease was tremendous to the extent that about 107, 333 and 2744 people were diagnosed by the end of the years 1987, 1988 and 1990 respectively; hence it was declared as epidemic in accordance with the status of World Health Organization (WHO). Because there is no cure for it yet, the Government of Ghana and other stakeholders have taken some interventions to reduce the spread of this epidemic. One of these interventions was the introduction of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) program in 2003 by the Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC) through the Ghana Health Service (GHS).  This research was therefore purposed at the use of phase trajectories to evaluate the effect of the ART program on the HIV infections rate. The data on the number of HIV infected people per each year for the years 1986-2018 were collated from the reports given by Ghana AIDS Commission (GAC), WHO and UNAIDS published on their associate websites. The whole data set was divided into two, with data one and two illustrating the yearly number of HIV infected people for the periods before (1986-2002) and after (2003-2018) the introduction of the ART program respectively. Phase trajectory analysis was then performed on the various components of the two data sets. Hypothesis testing was finally performed on the means of the two data sets to confirm the results of the phase trajectory analysis. The various phase trajectories illustrating data one (1086-2002) indicated a tremendous yearly increase in the HIV infection rate from 1986 to 2002, while those of data two indicated a tremendous yearly decrease in the HIV infection rate from 2003 to 2018. It was further confirmed at 0.05 significant level that the average number of HIV infected people before the introduction of the ART program was greater than that after the introduction of the ART program. Hence, the ART program contributed much to the reduction of the HIV infection rate in Ghana. The nature of this study, being first in Ghana, and its findings will help in updating the Ghanaian government, citizenly and other stakeholders on the trend of HIV infection rate with the introduction of the ART program.