Impact of Climatic Factors and Intervention Strategies on the Dynamics of Malaria in Ethiopia: A Mathematical Model Analysis

  • Shewakena Mersha Gebremichael Department of Mathematics, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan 445, Ethiopia
  • Temesgen Tibebu Mekonnen Department of Mathematics, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan 445, Ethiopia
Keywords: Malaria transmission, Nonlinear dynamical system, Climatic factors, Intervention strategies, Effective reproduction number, Sensitive analysis

Abstract

In this work we considered a nonlinear dynamical system to study the impact of temperature and rainfall on the transmission of malaria disease in Ethiopia. We found disease free and endemic equilibrium points and we proved their local and global stability. We calculate the effective reproduction number using real data collected from different health sectors in Ethiopia and we found that the malaria disease spreads in both high risk and low risk areas since the effective reproduction number  is greater than unity. We perform sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential control parameter of the spread of malaria disease. And thus, the most temperature dependent influential control parameter is mosquito biting rate  which can be controlled by insecticide treated net. The most rainfall dependent influential control parameter is larvae development rate  which can be controlled by destruction of mosquitoes breeding sites and regular use of larvicides.

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Published
2020-11-06
Section
Articles