Forecasting Unemployment Rates in Greece

Dritsakis Nikolaos, Athianos Stergios, Stylianou Tasos, Samaras Ioannis


This paper aims to model and forecast the evolution of unemployment rate in Greece, using the Box- Jenkins methodology during the period 1980-2013. The empirical study relieves that the most adequate model for the unemployment rate for this period is ARIMA (1,2,1). Using this model, we forecast the values of unemployment rate for 2014, 2015 and 2016. We found that the unemployment rate for 2014, 2015 and 2016 are 26.39% , 25.33% and 25.27% respectively.


ARIMA models; Box-Jenkins; unemployment rates; forecasting; Greece.

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