Climatic Change Impact on Corn Productivity in the Philippines

Arnold R. Salvacion


Agriculture crop production system is considered one of the sectors that will be highly affected by projected climate change because of the fact that climate influences not only the agricultural crop itself but as well as the different production activities and processes (e.g. land preparation, fertilization, harvest, pest and disease occurrence, etc.). The main focus on climate change impact assessment is its effect on crop productivity as it directly translates to possible food supply problem. Possible effects of the projected climate change on corn productivity in the Philippines were assessed under different climate change scenarios (A1, A2, B1, and B2) for different time periods (i.e. 2020, 2050, and 2080) using the developed methodological framework through the use of different research tool such as the geographic information system, stochastic weather data generator (SIMMETEO), and crop simulation model (CERES-Maize). Climatic change will surely affect corn productivity in the country. The extent of the impact depends on the location and cropping season. Assessment showed that wet season cropping is negatively affected by climate change. This was observed across different climate change scenarios and time periods. Decreasing yield trend during wet season was also observed from year 2020 to 2080.


climate change; Philippines; corn; crop simulation model; GIS;

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